BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s imports of crude oil rose in March from a year earlier, while those of soybeans, coal, iron ore and unwrought copper dropped, customs data showed on Monday.
China’s exports rose sharply in March after factories rushed out shipments before the latest U.S. tariffs took effect, but an escalating Sino-U.S. trade war has darkened the outlook for factories and growth in the world’s second-biggest economy.
U.S. President Donald Trump has ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese goods to hefty levels that many economists say will profoundly impact global trade flows and business investment.
KEY POINTS:
* Soybeans: March imports at 3.5 mmt, down 36.8% y/y
* Crude oil: March imports at 51.41 mmt, up 4.8% y/y
* Unwrought copper: March imports at 467,000 mt, down 1.4% y/y
* Coal: March imports at 38.73 mmt, down 6% y/y
* Iron ore: March imports at 93.97 mmt, down 6.7% y/y
* Rare earths: March exports at 5,666.3 mt, up 20.31% y/y
Preliminary table of commodity trade data Below are comments from analysts on the commodities data: COMMENT ON CRUDE OIL
EMMA LI, ANALYST, VORTEXA, SINGAPORE
“China’s (March) seaborne crude imports rebounded to 10.6 million bpd, the highest since October 2023, driven largely by record Iranian crude arrivals into the Shandong region.”
COMMENT ON SOYBEANS
ROSA WANG, ANALYST, JCI, SHANGHAI
“The market was concerned about a trade war after Trump took office. Additionally, with expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil, most orders were for Brazilian soybeans. The delayed harvest and traffic jam in Brazil also contributed to the low import numbers in March.”
COMMENT ON COPPER
ADAM WILLIAMS, HEAD OF BASE METALS RESEARCH, FASTMARKETS，LONDON
“The rise in U.S. copper prices in March, which have at times been trading over $1,400 per ton above the London Metal Exchange copper prices, has attracted copper shipments to the U.S. rather than China.” COMMENT ON IRON ORE
CHU XINLI, ANALYST, CHINA FUTURES, SHANGHAI
“March imports missed our expectations. The reason that March imports were not back to normal levels is because of the lingering impact from the weather disruptions in February.
“We expect iron ore imports in April to return to a more normal level due to improving demand and receding weather-led supply constraints.” COMMENT ON RARE EARTHS
NEHA MUKHERJEE, SENIOR ANALYST, BENCHMARK MINERAL INTELLIGENCE, LONDON
“China’s latest export controls come on top of an already volatile heavy rare-earth elements supply due to disruptions in Myanmar, putting more than 75% of global-mined medium and heavy REEs at risk and stirring short-term price volatility.
“While stockpiles may cover near-term demand, our estimates suggest that they will only suffice until the first half of 2025, and concerns around export delays could drive price spikes.”
(Reporting by China commodities and energy team; Editing by Tony Munroe, Kim Coghill and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)
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