By Anna Mehler Paperny, David Ljunggren and Wa Lone
HAMILTON, Canada, (Reuters) – For someone trying to win an election, Mark Carney appeared taken aback by the crowd of about 300 chanting his name at a meet-and-greet in this steel town menaced by tariffs.
But the Liberal leader and two-time central banker soon warmed to his topic: United States President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs and his jibes about making Canada the 51st state.
“His strategy is to break us so America can own us,” Carney told the crowd in this town in the crosshairs of Trump’s trade war – who responded with a smattering of boos at the mention of the U.S. president. “We are over the shock of the betrayal. But we should never forget the lessons.”
With less than two weeks until Canadians go to the polls on April 28, 60-year-old Carney, a Harvard-educated technocrat two months into his political career, has capitalized on his image as a steady hand at the tiller in an economic storm, drawing on his record as Canada’s central banker during the 2008 financial crisis and England’s central banker during Brexit.
His Liberal party has rebounded to a 6-point lead over the main opposition Conservative party led by Pierre Poilievre in polls aggregated by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, after trailing by 24 points in January.
Carney’s blend of tough talk and bland competence is a deliberate strategy, six Liberal strategists and a person directly familiar with Carney’s campaign told Reuters.
It has resonated with many Canadians. Carney’s Liberal party is projected to win a majority in parliament, extending its decade-long hold on power.
The Liberal party did not respond to requests for comment.
Meanwhile, career politician Poilievre has struggled to adapt his campaign to Trump, six Conservative strategists and four independent analysts said.
Carney’s monotone speaking style when he took over the Liberal leadership last month from former prime minister Justin Trudeau struck Liberal strategist Andrew Perez.
“Aren’t his advisors trying to get him to get excited?” Perez recalls asking a Liberal strategist who was not part of Carney’s team but was aware of their strategy.
From what he has observed and conversations he has had, Perez said, Liberals are banking on bland Carney as an antidote to bombastic Trump.
“They’re not trying to change who Carney is – this bland technocrat banker, almost father-like figure,” he said.
The strategy is striking a chord at a time when many Canadians are attending “Elbows Up” rallies, named for readiness for a hockey brawl; cancelling U.S. travel plans; and boycotting U.S. goods.
WHAT CANADIANS WANT TO HEAR
“Carney’s in full bird-flipping mode, and that’s what Canadians want to hear right now,” Andrew MacDougall, director at Trafalgar Strategy and erstwhile head of communications for former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, said in an interview.
The mix of defiance and competence is working for Lex Powell-Tucci, a 35-year-old Ottawa banker who cited Trump and trans rights as her top issues.
“I think that currently (Carney is) doing a very good job as prime minister by basically saying ‘I will come to the table if you are respecting Canadian sovereignty.’ … I think that we should be willing to work with the United States if these threats and annexation threats and economic threats are dropped, but I don’t think that we should forget,” she said.
“If you let a bully punch you a bunch, they’re just going to keep punching you.”
Carney is helped by other factors. His party’s rise in the polls began the day Trudeau stepped down. The tariff crisis gives Carney more visibility as prime minister and helps underscores his key message.
“I have spent my life handling crises. I did my bit to help Canada avoid the worst of the 2008 economic crisis. I guided the United Kingdom’s economy through the chaos caused by Brexit and I know that you don’t just need to brave the storm, you need to emerge from it stronger than ever,” he told media on Tuesday.
Support for the rival left-leaning New Democratic Party is also cratering, dropping below 9% in the polls this month from 19% in January as its supporters, fearful of both Trump and Poilievre, move to the Liberals.
But voter focus could still shift away from Trump. The NDP could revive, stealing Liberal votes. Carney faces off against Poilievre in a French-language debate on Wednesday night and the Liberal leader admits his French needs work. He can also be prickly, once responding to a reporter’s question by asking her to “look inside yourself.”
And some voters remain unsold. Guy Buchanan, a 69-year-old retired engineer from Calgary, worries Carney will continue Liberal policies he dislikes.
Buchanan, who recently tucked away his beloved supply of Kentucky bourbon and has been drinking Canadian whiskey in protest against Trump’s “51st state” talk, finds Poilievre’s Conservatives more believable when they say will help the oil and gas sector build pipelines and find new markets.
“I would argue that if we have a strong economy our sovereignty will be protected.”
‘EVERY BUZZER AND ALARM IS GOING OFF’
With Carney’s rise in the polls, some Conservative strategists have called out Poilievre’s campaign for failing to take on Trump.
This is in part because a portion of his base supports Trump and he may not want to lose them, said University of British Columbia politics professor Stewart Prest.
“In the campaign cockpit, every buzzer and alarm is going off,” Kory Teneycke, who managed Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s successful third campaign earlier this year, told a panel discussion in Toronto. He did not respond to interview requests.
Someone close to Poilievre’s campaign team with knowledge of campaign strategy said they are confident their message is resonating with Canadians, and do not pay attention to polls.
Poilievre’s campaign did not respond to an interview request, but the person close to his campaign pointed to the large, enthused crowds Poilievre has been drawing as evidence his message is speaking to people.
Poilievre, for his part, says his plans for Canada go beyond Trump.
“The threat from Trump is real and serious,” Poilievre said in a speech in Kingston.
“But the struggles Canadians are facing at home, the fear and the hurt I hear everywhere I go across this country – that is also real. And I will not stop talking about these problems, which predate Donald Trump, and which will outlast Donald Trump – if we don’t act to fix them now.”
BANKER MODE
Standing under a tent in the rain during a campaign event on a misty Vancouver Island morning earlier this month, Carney awkwardly toggled between English and French, laughing at his own jokes.
Then came the question about the historic fall in global stocks in response to Trump’s tariff moves – giving Carney the chance to speak to the economic moment.
“You’re a former Bank of Canada governor, former Bank of England governor,” the reporter said. “What do we make of this?”
“Well, it’s the key question,” Carney said, adding that Canada’s financial institutions are “rock-solid.”
“But what is happening in the markets is they are reacting to what we have warned about, which is that these tariffs are fundamentally damaging to the American economy and, by extension, to the global economy.”
An online election ad early in the campaign featured comic actor Mike Myers approach Carney watching ice hockey players skate past.
“I just thought I’d come up and check on things,” says Myers, originally from Canada but living stateside.
Carney quizzes him on a raft of Canadian trivia, including the names of TV puppets, the capital of Saskatchewan and Toronto’s two seasons (winter and construction).
“Wow. You really are Canadian,” Carney says, adding, when asked: “There will always be a Canada.”
The brand of patriotic nostalgia plays to older voters who understand the cultural references and who are seeking reassurance.
And it ends with what has become a Canadian rallying cry against Trump: “Elbows up.”
(With additional reporting by Promit Mukherjee in Ottawa and Amanda Stephenson in Calgary; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Suzanne Goldenberg)
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