(Reuters) – Argentina’s monthly inflation rate is seen hitting 3.1% in April, a dip from the 3.7% rate recorded in March, according to the median forecast of a Reuters poll published on Monday.
Inflation in the South American country has slowed dramatically since libertarian President Javier Milei took office in December 2023, when the monthly rate hit 25.5%. Upticks in February and March, however, took economists and analysts by surprise.
The average estimate from 22 local and foreign analysts showed inflation of 3% for April.
Eugenio Mari, chief economist of the Liberty and Progress Foundation, said several factors suggest inflation likely slowed in April, despite the easing of the exchange rate regime.
Milei lifted a currency control in mid-April that had restricted the purchase of foreign currency, and implemented a divergent floating exchange band set between 1,000 and 1,400 pesos per dollar.
“The currency unification was carried out without trauma and with a relatively small devaluation,” Mari said.
Analysts’ projections for April inflation ranged between a minimum inflation rate of 2% and a maximum of 3.5%.
They also project monthly inflation could slow to 2% in the second half of the year.
Eco Go, a consultancy, estimates May inflation at 2.3%, attributing the projected slowdown to a stable exchange rate, lower seasonal food prices, and falling fuel costs due to a drop in global oil prices.
The central bank’s recently published Market Expectations Survey, meanwhile, forecasts 2.0% inflation for July and 1.8% for August.
Argentina’s national statistics agency will release official data regarding April inflation on Wednesday afternoon (1900 GMT).
(Reporting by Hernan Nessi; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
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