By Alex Lawler, Olesya Astakhova and Ahmad Ghaddar
LONDON/MOSCOW (Reuters) -OPEC+ meets on Saturday to discuss an increase in oil output for July that may be larger than the 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) increases it made for May and June, sources familiar with OPEC+ talks told Reuters.
Eight OPEC+ countries have been raising output more rapidly than earlier planned, even though the extra supply has weighed on prices. The strategy of group leaders Saudi Arabia and Russia is aimed partly at punishing over-producing allies and to win back market share, Reuters has reported.
The eight members, set to meet online at 0900 GMT, could discuss an increase larger than 411,000 bpd for July, two sources familiar with OPEC+ talks and two OPEC+ delegates said. They could also keep the hike at 411,000 bpd, other sources said.
All sources declined to be identified by name due to the sensitivity of the matter. OPEC and authorities in Russia and Saudi Arabia did not respond to requests for comment sent on Friday.Kazakhstan’s statement on Thursday that it won’t cut production has sparked debate in OPEC+, some of the sources said on Friday, with one saying that this factor may tilt discussions towards a larger output hike on Saturday.
While eight leading OPEC+ members are increasing supply, some of those are being asked to temper those increases to compensate for producing more than their monthly quotas. Kazakhstan’s statement suggested it may not do so.
“Kazakhstan’s repeated public displays of production defiance do raise the risk of an even bigger output increase,” said Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets, adding that she still saw a 411,000 bpd hike for July as likely.
Kazakhstan has been pumping far above its OPEC+ target, a factor that has angered other OPEC+ members and helped prompt the group to proceed with plans to hike output beginning in April, sources said at the time.
United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, asked on Tuesday about the output plan for July, said OPEC+ was doing its best to balance the oil market.
Oil prices fell to a four-year low in April, slipping below $60 per barrel after OPEC+ said it was tripling its output hike in May and as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs raised concerns about global economic weakness. Prices closed just below $63 on Friday.
OPEC+ includes OPEC members and allies such as Russia. Output increases that began in April are aimed at unwinding some 2.2 million bpd of voluntary output cuts by eight leading member states.
(Reporting by Alex Lawler, Dmitry Zhdannikov, Ahmad Ghaddar, Olesya Astakhova, Maha El Dahan and Yousef Saba; writing by Alex Lawler; editing by Simon Webb and Jason Neely)
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