By Michael S. Derby
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he continues to believe that the U.S. central bank should cut its interest rate target at the end of the month amid mounting risks to the economy and the strong likelihood that tariff-induced inflation will not drive a persistent rise in price pressures.
“It makes sense to cut the FOMC’s policy rate by 25 basis points two weeks from now,” Waller said in the text of a speech prepared for delivery before a gathering of the Money Marketeers of New York University.
“I see the hard and soft data on economic activity and the labor market as consistent: The economy is still growing, but its momentum has slowed significantly, and the risks to the (Federal Open Market Committee’s) employment mandate have increased,” Waller said, and that justifies cutting rates.
He added that all the evidence suggests the Fed can look through the impact of tariffs and focus on other issues affecting the economy.
A July easing could also be followed by more rate cuts, as the Fed no longer needs a monetary policy stance designed to slow the economy, Waller said, noting the Fed’s interest rate target is well above the 3% officials consider its long-run level.
If underlying inflation remains in check and expectations of future price increases stay contained amid slow growth, “I would support further 25 basis point cuts to move monetary policy toward neutral,” he said.
Waller warned that not easing this month could create issues down the road.
“If we cut our target range in July and subsequent employment and inflation data point toward fewer cuts, we would have the option of holding policy steady for one or more meetings,” Waller said.
But if economic weakness accelerated, “waiting until September or even later in the year would risk us falling behind the curve of appropriate policy,” the official said.
Waller is one of the last central bank officials to weigh in on the economy as policy makers go into their customary quiet period for the rate-setting FOMC meeting scheduled for July 29-30.
Most central bank officials who have spoken have signaled no interest in changing the Fed’s 4.25% to 4.5% interest rate target now as inflation remains above target, the economy is generally faring well and it’s unclear how much upward price pressure President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs will create.
Financial markets are currently pricing in a September starting date for rate cuts and Fed officials penciled in two easings at their June meeting. Waller is one of two Fed officials who have expressed interest in cutting rates this month, reckoning the import tax surge will be a one-time event that policy makers can look through.
Waller stressed in recent remarks his interest in cutting rates soon was “not political.” Waller is widely viewed as in the running to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Fed leader has been under regular attack from Trump, who believes the central bank should cut rates aggressively.
On Wednesday reports indicated the president was close to firing Powell amid a lack of clarity over whether the action would be legal, with Trump later denying those reports.
In his remarks, Waller noted data points to a job market that is “on the edge” of trouble. At the same time, he said that if 10% tariffs were sustained, that would add only 0.75% to 1% to inflation.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)
Comments