By Lisa Baertlein
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -U.S. delivery companies are on track to handle 2.3 billion packages this holiday season, 5% more than last year, as an extra shopping day helps offset the drag from President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, according to a forecast released on Monday.
Investors are keen for information on the holiday delivery season that stretches from Thanksgiving to Christmas because companies like FedEx and UPS can deliver twice the normal number of packages on some days.
The expected increase in holiday deliveries will not be spread equally across companies, logistics technology provider ShipMatrix said on Monday.
That could mean some delivery providers get more customer pushback on so-called “peak surcharges” that help shelter carrier profits from higher holiday season costs.
In the first half of 2025, total U.S. domestic parcel volumes increased 6.1% at Amazon.com’s logistics arm and 5% at FedEx. Volume at UPS, which is cutting the number of packages it delivers for Amazon, decreased 5.4%, while the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) fell 6.7%, ShipMatrix said.
The volume decline at UPS and USPS combined was more than what Amazon and FedEx gained, and that additional volume of 102 million packages was likely handled by the private delivery networks of large retailers like Walmart or by other carriers, the report said.
If current trends stretch into the holiday season, “we expect FedEx and Amazon to experience a 5 to 8 percent increase with UPS and USPS being flat,” ShipMatrix added.
Higher U.S. prices for goods tied to Trump’s tariffs as well as the end of import duty exemptions for low-value goods sold via China-linked retailers like Temu and Shein have been sapping already-soft delivery demand.
FedEx and UPS have seen volumes decline since Trump ended the import duty exemption for low-value, direct-to-consumer goods from China and Hong Kong on May 2 and for the rest of the world on August 29. Last year, roughly 1.4 billion packages came into the United States under the “de minimis” exemption for goods valued at less than $800.
Trump’s ever-changing tariff policy also has put a chill on U.S. business spending and made consumers, whose spending accounts for two-thirds of domestic economic activity, wary about rising prices.
(Reporting by Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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