(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs raised on Monday its December 2026 gold price forecast to $4,900 per ounce from $4,300, citing strong Western exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and likely central bank buying.
“We see the risks to our upgraded gold price forecast as still skewed to the upside on net, because private sector diversification into the relatively small gold market may boost ETF holdings above our rates-implied estimate,” Goldman said.
Spot gold was trading around $3,960 per ounce, as of 0130 GMT on Tuesday, after hitting a fresh high of $3,977.19 earlier in the day.
Gold has climbed 51% so far this year on strong central bank buying, increased demand for gold-backed ETFs, a weaker dollar and growing interest from retail investors seeking a hedge against rising trade and geopolitical tensions.
Goldman expects central bank buying to average 80 metric tons in 2025 and 70 tons in 2026, saying emerging market central banks are likely to continue the structural diversification of their reserves into gold.
Western ETF holdings are expected to rise as the U.S. Federal Reserve is seen lowering the funds rate by 100 basis points by mid-2026, analysts at Goldman Sachs said.
“In contrast, noisier speculative positioning has remained broadly stable. Following the large September increase, the level of Western ETF holdings has now fully caught up with our U.S. rates-implied estimate, suggesting the recent ETF strength is not an overshoot,” it said.
(Reporting by Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; Editing by Tom Hogue and Muralikumar Anantharaman)
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