PARIS (Reuters) -Sowing of winter grains has advanced rapidly in much of Europe, helped by drier weather than in the rain-hit starts to the past two campaigns and raising the prospect of a steady planted area despite low market prices, analysts said.
A dry early October allowed widespread drilling before wetter conditions forecast from this week, which should support soil moisture for crop development.
This could keep the area with soft wheat, Europe’s main cereal crop, relatively stable, said Erick Kambayeko, crop analyst at Expana.
The firm expects more variation for earlier-sown rapeseed, which may gain area due to better margins than for cereals, and for later-planted spring barley and maize, which could lose ground.
The favourable conditions contrast with rain-disrupted sowings in 2023 and 2024, though a drier end to autumn last year helped wheat and barley recover.
In France, farmers had sown over half the expected soft wheat area and nearly three-quarters of winter barley by October 20, ahead of the five-year average, according to farm office FranceAgriMer.
“We see rather favourable sowing windows for soft wheat and winter barley,” Kambayeko said. “In most cases there’s sufficient moisture without excess water.”
Soft wheat and winter barley area could rise slightly in France, though rapeseed is expected to see larger gains, he added.
In Germany, sowing is nearly complete after good weather spells.
“Sowings are almost completed on schedule apart from areas to be sown after maize and sugar beet harvesting,” a German grains analyst said. He expected little change in grain crop areas, with low benchmark prices on Euronext offering few incentives to switch, though rapeseed may increase slightly.
In Britain, field work has also gone well, with winter sowing already finished in some regions, said Luke Cox, senior policy specialist at the National Farmers’ Union.
“Most farms will hope to drill an area of winter cereals in line with their cropping plans, which hasn’t been possible in recent years due to extreme weather,” he said.
Major shifts in crop areas are not expected, though rapeseed may expand after a good harvest, he added.
In Poland, winter wheat and rapeseed sowings may fall slightly, said Wojtek Sabaranski of research firm Sparks Polska.
A delayed maize harvest could limit winter wheat sowing and lead to more spring barley and spring wheat, while farmer dissatisfaction with rapeseed prices may trim oilseed’s area, he said.
(Reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris, Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Nigel Hunt in London; Editing by Alison Williams)
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