By Shi Bu, Yukun Zhang and Kevin Yao
BEIJING, April 13 (Reuters) – New bank lending in China jumped less than expected in March, while broad money and financing growth remained sufficient to support economic expansion, signalling the central bank is in no rush to ease policy.
China’s banks extended 2.99 trillion yuan ($438 billion) in new yuan loans in March, surging from 900 billion yuan in February but missing analysts’ forecasts, according to Reuters calculations based on data released by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected new yuan loans would stand at 3.4 trillion yuan last month.
China’s overall financing activity remained resilient, underpinned by continued strength in bond‑related funding, said Zhou Hao, a Hong Kong‑based analyst at Guotai Haitong Securities.
“While improving macro momentum may push back the timeline for further monetary easing compared with earlier expectations, the broader direction and intensity of monetary and fiscal support are still likely to remain in place,” Zhou said.
The PBOC does not provide monthly breakdowns. Reuters calculated the March figure based on the bank’s January-March data issued on Monday, compared with the January-February figure.
Outstanding yuan loans grew 5.7% in March from a year earlier, slower than 6.0% in February. Analysts had expected 5.9% growth.
March is typically a seasonally strong month for lending, as activity rebounds after the Chinese New Year lull and banks step up loan issuance to meet quarterly targets.
Household loans, including mortgages, grew by 490.9 billion yuan in March after a 650.7 billion yuan contraction in February, while corporate loans rose to 2.66 trillion yuan from 1.49 trillion yuan, according to Reuters’ calculations.
Despite the rise, the March new loans were lower than 3.64 trillion seen last March and new loans in January-March came in at 8.6 trillion yuan, also lagging the 9.78 trillion yuan from the same period in 2025, suggesting softer underlying credit demand as borrowers’ outlook on future income and growth dims.
NO IMMINENT CENTRAL BANK EASING
China’s economy likely regained some momentum nL6N40T0NQ in the first quarter on solid exports, but growth is expected to cool over the rest of 2026 as the Iran crisis threatens to choke corporate profits and sap overseas demand, a Reuters poll showed.
Beijing has set a budget deficit of about 4% of GDP for 2026 and lined up heavy bond issuance to support growth, while the PBOC has pledged to keep policy accommodative despite having limited room to cut rates as inflation edges higher.
The poll forecast that the central bank will keep the benchmark one‑year loan prime rate unchanged through the end of 2026, while cutting banks’ weighted‑average reserve requirement ratio by 20 basis points in the third quarter of the year.
China has so far absorbed the economic shock from the Iran war with limited disruption, cushioned by large oil reserves, a diversified energy mix and tight price controls.
But economists warn that persistently higher oil prices are already lifting input costs and squeezing profits at a time when domestic demand remains weak, and China’s exports, a pillar of growth, could falter if the conflict nL6N40V09S drags on and undermines the global economy, they added.
Broad M2 money supply grew 8.5% from a year earlier in March, PBOC data showed, below analysts’ 8.9% forecast in the Reuters poll. In February, M2 grew 9%.
The narrower M1 money supply grew 5.1% in March from a year earlier, compared to 5.9% in February.
Outstanding total social financing (TSF) – a broad measure of credit and liquidity – rose 7.9% in March from a year earlier, slower than 8.2% in February. Any acceleration in government bond issuance could boost such financing.
($1 = 6.8337 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Shi Bu, Yukun Zhang and Kevin Yao; Editing by William Maclean)
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