(Reuters) -El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2025, with a 56% chance in August-October, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said, meaning neither an El Nino nor a La Nina weather phenomenon is likely.
Chances of La Nina conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, but remain comparable to ENSO-neutral, the CPC said on Thursday.
WHY IT’S IMPORTANT
The El Nino phenomenon is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, which can lead to crop damage, flash floods or fires.
La Nina is part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Nina results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.
CONTEXT
Japan’s weather bureau said that normal weather patterns are continuing and that there was a 40% chance of the La Nina phenomenon emerging in the Northern Hemisphere autumn.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service has predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for the 2025 season.
KEY QUOTES
“The neutral ENSO is expected to continue through at least the end of the year. The chances of transition to El Nino or La Nina are rather low, although the odds of La Nina are slightly higher than the odds of El Nino, as we should be in a negative neutral category as we get closer to the fall and winter,” said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist, at Vaisala Weather.
“The ENSO neutral conditions should enhance planting and yield expectations for corn/soybeans in the U.S. as well as South America, but lower yield expectations a bit for wheat in Australia.”
(Reporting by Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru; Editing by Susan Fenton)
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