There’s nothing wrong with all four No. 1 seeds barging their way into the Final Four. When it happened last March for the first time since 2008, it led to a terrific Final Four in San Antonio that didn’t determine the champion until the title game’s final possession.
So, if Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida reign supreme over the next two weekends and earn their way to Indianapolis, college basketball fans everywhere will relish the chance to watch them bash it out for the right to bask in One Shining Moment.
But let’s be honest: As amazing as each No. 1 seed’s talent happens to be — not to mention their metrics — none of these teams are unbeatable. The Blue Devils and Wolverines are dealing with injuries that test their depth at point guard. The Gators’ 3-point prowess (or lack thereof) sank them in the SEC tournament semifinals.
And, well, the Wildcats looked pretty phenomenal while blasting their way to the Big 12 tournament championship, but studs Jaden Bradley and Koa Peat have been dealing with injuries, including a wrist injury suffered by Bradley in the Big 12 title game.
So which teams might knock off a No. 1 seed and take their place in Indy? Here’s the team from each seed line with the best chance of advancing:
No. 2: Last year, Houston essentially had to be the road team in the Midwest Region in Indianapolis. The Cougars edged Purdue in the Sweet 16 before taking down Tennessee and the Big Orange Nation in the Elite Eight. For their troubles, the Cougars have the chance to play in Houston in the South Region this time. You think Florida is happy about this?
No. 3: Michigan State isn’t the most talented 3 seed, but it boasts the toughest point guard in likely All-American Jeremy Fears Jr. and he sets the tone for his squad. If it comes down the Spartans and second-seeded UConn in the East Region semifinals, the Huskies have indicated in recent weeks they’re lacking a killer instinct.
No. 4: Somehow the West Region features the Big 12 (Arizona), Big Ten (Purdue), West Coast (Gonzaga) and Southeastern Conference (Arkansas) tournament champions, with the Razorbacks the fourth seed. So everyone’s coming in hot, but nobody’s hotter than Arkansas freshman PG Darius Acuff Jr. In his last eight games, he has averaged 28.4 points and 7.4 assists while shooting 48.1% from 3-point range.
No. 5: Wisconsin and Vanderbilt have been rolling and feature great guard combos that can make a difference in March, but St. John’s gets stuck with a 5 seed after smacking UConn by 20 in the Big East title game? Nothing against Northern Iowa and Cal Baptist, but can’t wait to watch St. John’s and Kansas in Round 2.
No. 6: If you have the likely No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, then you’ve got a chance to make something happen in March. AJ Dybantsa leads the nation with 25.3 points per game and he seems to be getting more comfortable from 3-point range. He gives BYU a chance to reach the Sweet 16 for the second year in a row.
No. 7: Saint Mary’s doesn’t have an easy draw. If the ultra-patient Gaels harness the Texas A&M whirlwind in the first round, then the Houston Cougars await in Round 2. But Saint Mary’s boasts terrific shooters (38.6% from 3) and a rock-ribbed defense. That’s the combo that can pay big in March.
No. 8: The last few years, Ohio State showed an alarming talent for fading down the stretch. Not this year. With all-time leading scorer Bruce Thornton leading the way, the Buckeyes are 4-1 this March with a narrow loss to Michigan the only demerit.
No. 9: As soon as the brackets were announced, the talking heads couldn’t wait to gush over Utah State. And with good reason. Led by Mountain West player of the year Mason Falslev, the Aggies are in the NCAAs for the fifth time in six seasons. No high-major would play them in nonconference.
No. 10: We have a compelling group of 10 seeds, but Santa Clara sticks out in the school’s first NCAA Tournament since 1996 — when Steve Nash ran the show. Herb Sendek’s Broncos play fast, yet they found a way to defeat Saint Mary’s two out of three.
No. 11: It has been 15 years since Shaka Smart led VCU to the Final Four from the 11 seed. That’s reason enough to single out VCU, but its band also delivers the tuffest song: “You don’t want to go to war with the Rams; Don’t start no stuff, won’t be no stuff.” Look it up on YouTube, people.
No. 12: Basically, this is where we predict the annual 5-12 upset. Akron retained five key players from last year’s NCAA Tournament crew, then coach John Groce added the Mahaffey Bros. (Eric and Evan) for even more energy and defense. The Zips won’t be favored against Texas Tech, but they won’t be scared, either.
No. 13: Hofstra traveled to Pittsburgh on Dec. 7 and Syracuse on Dec. 13 (bookending a classic trap game against Old Westbury on Dec. 10) and took care of those Atlantic Coast Conference squads. Speedy Claxton’s crew shoots the lights out (36.8% from 3) and protects the rim defensively.
No. 14: Did you see the end of the Ivy League championship game? Then you know why Penn gets the nod here. TJ Power, a four-star prospect who began his career at Duke, hit two ridiculous 3-pointers to force OT and highlight his 44-point, 14-rebound performance. Fran McCaffery wasted no time refurbishing his alma mater.
No. 15: Idaho finished seventh in the Big Sky, then promptly reeled off four tournament wins in five days to collect the school’s first NCAA bid since 1990. The Vandals don’t have any high-major transfers, but they have a balanced offense, they shoot the 3 well and they don’t turn it over much — but we imagine Houston will try to force a few miscues.
No. 16: Anyone remember the last time UMBC made the NCAA field? Anyone? Tony Bennett? Wahoo Nation? The Retrievers are back for the first time since 2018, when they slayed No. 1 Virginia in the first round. UMBC isn’t even favored to win in Tuesday’s First Four game against Howard, but it enters riding a 12-game winning streak during which only two games were decided by single digits.
–Lindsey Willhite, Field Level Media
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