April 9 (Reuters) – U.S. stock futures inched lower on Thursday after the indexes rallied in the previous session, as cracks emerged in the fragile Middle East ceasefire, while investors turned their focus to a domestic inflation reading later in the day.
U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to retain military assets in the Middle East until a peace deal was reached with Iran and warned of a major escalation if it failed to comply, a day after fighting continued despite Tuesday’s ceasefire.
Uncertainty around energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz led to a rebound in oil prices, but they remained below $100 a barrel. U.S. energy stocks inched slightly higher in premarket trading.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq posted their biggest one-day jumps in over a week on Wednesday, as global markets cheered the two-week ceasefire, while the Dow marked its steepest rise in a year.
“While the crisis’ peak is likely behind us, and markets appear to think that is the case, it may still be too early to aggressively extend risk,” said analysts at BCA Research.
“With volatile headlines and rhetoric shifting… Hormuz flows will determine whether any truce is truly working. Risk assets could still rally even if kinetic attacks continue, provided Hormuz shows credible signs of reopening.”
At 04:55 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 187 points, or 0.39%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 27.25 points, or 0.40% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 95.25 points, or 0.38%.
On Thursday, investors will parse through the personal consumption expenditure figures for February – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
Economists polled by Reuters expect the PCE index to remain at 2.8%, unchanged from January.
Friday’s consumer prices index number for March will steal the spotlight as investors await to see the impact of the elevated oil prices, stemming from the conflict, on the economy.
A final reading of economic growth in the fourth quarter will also be watched.
Money market participants are pricing in only about 30% chances of a 25 basis-point interest rate cut by end-2026, compared with a 56% chance a day ago, per LSEG-compiled data.
They expected two cuts this year before the war broke out, while bets for a rate hike in December had also risen during the conflict.
Minutes from the central bank’s March meeting showed a growing group of policymakers felt last month that rate hikes might be needed to counter inflation that continued to exceed the central bank’s 2% target, especially as the war drove up prices.
Among premarket movers, Applied Digital shares dropped 6.7% after the data center operator’s third-quarter net loss widened from a year earlier.
(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal and Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)
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