(Reuters) – A wild first half of the year is almost over, with focus shifting to how central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, steer markets in the months ahead.
The new Fed chief attends the European Central Bank’s Sintra conference, while U.S. jobs numbers, euro zone inflation readings, British politics and tech are in focus.
Here’s a roundup of all you need to know about the week ahead in world markets from Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore and Amanda Cooper, Marc Jones and Dhara Ranasinghe in London.
1/ GOOD JOBS NEWS EQUALS BAD NEWS?
Next week’s U.S. employment report will be released against a backdrop of increased speculation over whether the Fed will hike rates this year.
And traders have one day less to wait, with the June nonfarm payrolls data released on Thursday because of Friday’s U.S. Independence Day.
After the May report marked a third straight month of solid job gains, markets may be more wary of an overly strong number that highlights the economy’s resilience than a weak reading. A surprisingly hawkish June Fed meeting showed policymakers laser-focused on controlling inflation.
As it stands, traders price in a rate hike from the Kevin Warsh-led central bank potentially as soon as September.
2/ MEETING OLD FRIENDS IN SINTRA
The ECB hosts a central banking gathering in Sintra, Portugal, welcoming Warsh in his first trip anywhere since becoming the new Fed chief.
It is an opportunity for those attending to reconnect with a figure many of them know well from his past stint at the Fed.
Markets are keen to assess what kind of Fed Warsh will run, and how proactive he will be at times when global financial stability is at risk.
Having talked the talk of favouring monetary easing during the Fed Governor nomination process, Warsh made clear at his first press conference that he takes inflation fighting seriously.
Bond traders got the message, pricing in a rate hike by year-end.
Of course, ECB chief Christine Lagarde will also speak in Sintra, while euro zone June inflation data on Wednesday could show whether the ECB needs to mull another near-term rate hike.
3/ AI FRENZY, WARS, MAKE FOR WILD FIRST HALF
Markets cross the year’s halfway marker after a volatile six months dominated by U.S.-instigated turmoil from Venezuela and Greenland to Iran and the seemingly unstoppable rise of AI stocks.
That AI bull run means world stocks are now worth $7 trillion more than at the end of 2025, and that even after a $9 trillion wipeout in March triggered by the Iran war, which drove oil to $120 a barrel and dashed hopes for lower global interest rates.
South Korean stocks have surged a whopping 100%, SpaceX blasted off whereas the Magnificent 7 tech stocks are down as a set, Treasuries are flat and gold has lost its shine.
The second half of the year promises to be lively too. Britain’s nervy bond markets await a new prime minister, currency traders remain on yen intervention watch, the Fed sounds hawkish and traders are bracing for President Donald Trump’s U.S. midterm election plan.
4/ THE KING OF THE NORTH
Britain has just marked the 10th anniversary of the Brexit vote that took the country out of the European Union and is about to welcome its seventh prime minister in a decade.
Keir Starmer has just said he would step down after two years in the job given plummeting popularity both nationally and within his ruling Labour Party.
Enter Andy Burnham, the frontrunner to replace Starmer. Burnham is expected to give a speech on Monday and markets are wary.
The former Greater Manchester mayor, who earned his “King of the North” nickname for his leadership during COVID, is seen as more left-leaning than Starmer.
He has called for nationalisation of key industries and for Britain to rejoin the EU. Who he crowns as finance minister is going to be crucial for the nation’s finances and its markets.
5/ WHEN THE CHIPS ARE DOWN
Asia chipmaker stocks remain in the spotlight as volatility rises across the region, particularly in South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.
Apple’s hefty price hikes reveal the downside of booming chip demand.
Investors are on the lookout for the next catalyst after index compiler MSCI opted against putting South Korea on the watchlist for an upgrade to developed market status.
Attention turns to economic data including Wednesday’s South Korean monthly manufacturing and export figures, a temperature check on global demand which will be closely watched after stellar export orders from Taiwan, which nevertheless fell short of even heftier expectations.
Japan’s flash PMIs indicate new orders are still rising across Asia as customers stockpile products to avoid supply chain disruptions, indicating the region is shrugging off the Iran war.
Memory chipmaker SK Hynix will also hit the road ahead of a U.S. secondary listing on July 10 in which it hopes to raise $29.43 billion.
(Graphics by Kripa Jayaram, Additional reporting by Dan Burns; Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
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