MOSCOW, July 16 (Reuters) – Russia’s federal budget spending and deficit could exceed official plans by more than 1 trillion roubles ($12.85 billion) in 2026, according to the data from the government’s budget portal.
The outlet, which aggregates information from the finance ministry and federal treasury, did not give a reason for the increase, although Russia’s military spending is on the rise due to the war with Ukraine.
The projection comes as the central bank considers whether to continue cutting its key interest rate or keep it unchanged at next week’s policy meeting. The Bank of Russia has repeatedly identified a wider budget deficit as a major inflationary risk.
According to the data, federal spending is projected to reach 45.11 trillion roubles in 2026, compared with 44.07 trillion roubles in the budget law.
Projected revenue remains unchanged, at 40.28 trillion roubles, implying a budget deficit of 4.83 trillion roubles, versus 3.79 trillion roubles, or 1.6% of the gross domestic product, currently assumed by the budget.
Russia’s budget deficit was 5.73 trillion roubles, or 2.5% of GDP, in the first half of the year, finance ministry data showed, 1.7 times higher than in the same period a year earlier.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has said the deficit would increase “somewhat” compared with the official target, while pledging this would not significantly increase domestic borrowing.
The budget gap also remains higher than previously planned over the following two years. The finance ministry has postponed achieving a zero primary budget deficit, as required under Russia’s fiscal rule, until 2029.
In 2025, Russia’s budget deficit exceeded the official target almost fivefold, reaching 5.7 trillion roubles, or 2.6% of GDP, the highest level since the pandemic year of 2020.
($1 = 77.8000 roubles)
(Reporting by Darya Korsunskaya. Editing by Mark Potter)
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