By David Morgan
May 16 (Reuters) – U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, a Republican moderate targeted for retribution by President Donald Trump, will find out whether he can survive a primary election in Louisiana on Saturday against two popular rivals, including a Trump-backed challenger, or become the first elected Senate incumbent to lose renomination in more than a decade.
Cassidy, a physician who first earned the president’s ire by voting for his conviction in Trump’s second Senate impeachment trial in 2021, entered the Republican primary in third place behind Trump-backed U.S. Representative Julia Letlow and Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming, a former congressman who served in Trump’s first administration, according to polling data compiled by the website RealClearPolitics.com.
Cassidy’s chances of victory seem narrow in a state where Trump received more than 60% of the vote during the 2024 presidential election. But in a closely fought three-way battle that is likely to end in a June 27 runoff election, Trump could also risk embarrassment if Letlow, whom Cassidy has sought to brand as a “liberal,” is ultimately bested by Fleming, a former Navy physician who has strong backing within the state Republican Party.
“Dr John Fleming is the only conservative candidate in the race,” said Christy Haik, a member of the powerful Republican State Central Committee and president of the conservative group, Louisiana State Republican Assembly.
TRUMP RETRIBUTION CAMPAIGN
The Louisiana primary is the latest venue for an ongoing Trump retribution campaign that delivered primary defeats this month against at least 5 of 7 Republican state legislators in Indiana, who opposed the president’s push for a mid-decade congressional redistricting plan to protect the Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Next week, Trump’s campaign moves to Kentucky, where the president hopes to see his hand-picked primary challenger Ed Gallrein defeat Republican U.S. Representative Thomas Massie, a Trump critic and leading voice in the campaign to release government files on convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, an erstwhile friend of the president.
In Louisiana, Letlow, 45, won Trump’s Senate endorsement before she had even announced her candidacy. She entered Congress after her husband Luke died of a COVID infection after being elected to the House in 2020. She ran to replace him in a special election and succeeded with Trump’s endorsement. Cassidy has targeted her support for diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives when she worked for the University of Louisiana at Monroe. She has responded with ads calling Cassidy and Fleming “Never Trumpers” and emphasizing her presidential endorsement.
Cassidy, a 68-year-old doctor who specialized in the treatment of liver disease and helped found a Baton Rouge clinic that serves low-income patients, served in the Louisiana Senate and the U.S. House before unseating former Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu in 2014 to become the first Republican to capture the seat since 1883. He now chairs the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. He was reelected in 2020 with nearly 60% of the vote.
With backing from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, he entered the final phase of the primary campaign with $5.5 million in cash, compared with $1.6 million for Letlow, according to documents filed to the Federal Election Commission. Fleming, 74, had nearly $1.4 million in cash left from a campaign that he has largely self-financed.
CASSIDY VOTED TO IMPEACH TRUMP
But that financial firepower has not propelled his campaign after a series of conflicts with Trump beginning with his role in 2021 as one of seven Republicans who supported Trump’s impeachment after the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters. He is now one of only three still in office.
Cassidy later called on Trump to drop out of the 2024 presidential race after his indictment for allegedly mishandling classified documents and declined to endorse Trump after he won the Republican nomination.
Since Trump’s return to the White House, Cassidy has tried to work his way back into the president’s good graces by supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination for U.S. health secretary.
But Cassidy’s support for Trump health policy has been short-lived, with him expressing open skepticism for Kennedy’s bid to overhaul U.S. vaccine policy and joining fellow Republican Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski to slow the health secretary’s agenda in Congress.
The most recent break came last month when Trump accused Cassidy of blocking the nomination of Casey Means as U.S. surgeon general, forcing the president to name radiologist and Fox News contributor Nicole Saphier as his third pick for the job.
Independent political analysts say Cassidy could still emerge from Saturday’s primary to face either Letlow or Fleming in a run-off. Whoever ultimately emerges as the victor, the seat is expected to remain in Republican hands.
Former Republican Senator Richard Lugar was the last elected incumbent to lose his bid for renomination in 2012.
(Reporting by David Morgan; additional reporting by David Hood-Nuño; Editing by Michael Learmonth and Alistair Bell)
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