By Lucy Papachristou
YEREVAN, June 5 (Reuters) – Armenia holds a parliamentary election on Sunday that pits the governing Civil Contract party, which is pursuing closer ties with the West, against an array of opposition parties, many of which are pro-Russian.
Opinion polls predict Civil Contract, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, will emerge as the largest party, but it could fall short of the two-thirds majority necessary to make changes to the constitution.
Here’s what to look out for:
REFERENDUM ON PEACE DEAL
* Civil Contract, in power since 2018, has been touting its progress towards a peace deal with Azerbaijan after Pashinyan signed an initial agreement with Baku at the White House last August.
* Many analysts describe the election as a referendum on Pashinyan’s handling of the peace process, with his critics saying he has conceded too much to Azerbaijan.
* A landlocked country of around 3 million, Armenia has been at on-and-off war with Azerbaijan since the late 1980s, mostly over the mountainous territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
* Baku retook full control of Karabakh in a lightning offensive in 2023, causing nearly all of the region’s 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee to Armenia.
RUSSIAN PRESSURE
* Russia has been dialling up pressure on Armenia in the lead-up to the vote, restricting a wide array of Armenian exports to Russian markets and threatening to cut off cheap supplies of its oil and gas.
* Armenia sent about a third of its exports to Russia last year and also imports the overwhelming majority of its gas from there. Russia also keeps a large military base in Armenia.
* Russia threatened last week to suspend Armenia from a Moscow-led economic union for seeking European Union membership, and has called on Yerevan to hold a popular referendum to decide on its future direction.
* Armenian civil society groups have raised alarm over what they say are Russian state-sponsored disinformation efforts in the lead-up to the election. Moscow routinely denies it meddles in other countries’ internal affairs.
WARMING TO THE WEST
* Armenia last year adopted a law to launch its European Union accession process, and Pashinyan has sought to project Armenia as a key partner for Europe in the South Caucasus.
* Part of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement sees a proposed transit corridor built across Armenian territory to better connect Asia to Europe while bypassing Russia.
* An agreement signed with U.S. Vice President JD Vance during a visit this year to Yerevan could pave the way for an American company to build a new nuclear reactor in Armenia.
PRO-RUSSIAN OPPOSITION
* Armenia’s opposition is dominated by pro-Russian groups, several of which are tied to unpopular former presidents.
* The biggest challenger is the Strong Armenia party, led by an Armenian-Russian billionaire who is currently on trial for making calls to overthrow the government.
* Strong Armenia is running on a pro-business platform and wants Armenia to keep its traditionally close relationship with Moscow, accusing Pashinyan of attempting to stoke war with Russia.
NORMALISATION WITH AZERBAIJAN, TURKEY
* Yerevan and Baku reached a U.S.-brokered peace agreement in August but have yet to sign a formal deal. Azerbaijan is demanding Armenia first change some wording in its constitution, which Yerevan says it is willing to do. Should Pashinyan fail to secure a two-thirds majority in parliament, this pledge would be difficult for him to fulfil, and peace efforts could stall.
* Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey have been closed for decades, with the latter shuttering its frontier in 1993 in solidarity with its key ally Baku over the Karabakh issue.
* Progress has been made recently towards normalisation with Ankara, including in trade, but in general the process has been slow.
(Reporting by Lucy Papachristou; Editing by Alex Richardson)
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